The calendar and mother nature says it is time for planting, so the fields are busy this week. The weather looks to be very good for planting for the next couple days with a big system expected to move through Friday through Sunday/Monday. Yes, that is 3 or 4 days for a system to move through, which is uncommon. This is a very amplified system and will produce a lot of moisture for someone, but probably not everyone. The 7-Day QPF shows most of the moisture in the western half of Nebraska. These values are very, very high and would pose significant issues with runoff, erosion, lowland flooding, or even heavy snow for far west portions of Nebraska. We will know more in the coming days, but precipitation is quite likely for most of the state at this point. A little moisture would be good for germination and recharge, but anything over a couple inches will run off the fields and cause problems.
The forecast for the next couple weeks looks to stay warm and relatively dry. We will see how the upper air pattern shakes out after this big system this weekend, but it looks to get back to near normal conditions over the next couple weeks. It seems there is a tendency during the spring to get these repetitive storm systems with similar storm tracks; however, the models aren't really picking this up yet. Just something to be thinking about. We saw that type of thing happen last spring in Texas and Oklahoma, as well as Eastern Nebraska. This is quite an anomalous storm system, so could be a one-time show. The CPC Outlooks keep us warm and near normal moisture through next weekend.
I study weather and climate impacts on agriculture, climate variability, and using weather and climate information to make better agricultural decisions.